New England:
New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:
1) NE win + DEN loss
New England clinches a first-round bye with:
1) NE win OR
2) NE tie + IND loss or tie OR
3) IND loss + CIN loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
Denver:
Denver clinches a first-round bye with:
1) DEN win OR
2) DEN tie + IND loss or tie
Cincinnati:
Cincinnati clinches AFC North division with:
1) CIN win + PIT loss + BAL loss or tie
Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot with:
1) CIN win OR
2) CIN tie + BAL loss OR
3) CIN tie + KC loss or tie + SD loss or tie OR
4) KC loss + SD loss + BUF loss or tie
Pittsburgh:
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
1) PIT win
Baltimore:
Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:
1) BAL win + PIT loss + CIN loss OR
2) BAL win + KC loss or tie + SD loss or tie OR
3) BAL tie + KC loss + SD loss + BUF loss or tie
Arizona:
Arizona clinches NFC West division, first round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the entire playoffs with:
1) ARI win
Detroit:
Detroit clinches NFC North division with:
1) DET win + GB loss
Detroit clinches a first-round bye with:
1) DET win + GB loss + DAL loss
Detroit clinches a playoff spot with:
1) DET win OR
2) DET tie + PHI loss or tie OR
3) PHI loss
Dallas:
Dallas clinches NFC East division with:
1) DAL win + PHI loss or tie OR
2) DAL tie + PHI loss
Dallas clinches a playoff spot with:
1) DAL win + GB loss or tie + DET loss or tie as long as both don't tie
Seattle:
Seattle clinches a playoff spot with:
1) SEA win + PHI loss or tie OR
2) SEA win + DET loss or tie OR
3) SEA win + GB loss or tie OR
4) SEA tie + PHI loss OR
5) SEA tie + DET loss + GB loss OR
6) PHI loss + DAL win or tie
Green Bay:
Green Bay clinches a playoff spot with:
1) GB win + PHI loss or tie OR
2) GB win + DAL win or tie OR
3) GB tie + PHI loss OR
4) GB tie + PHI tie + DAL win or tie OR
5) PHI loss + DAL win or tie
New Orleans:
New Orleans clinches NFC South division with:
1) NO win + CAR loss
How the AFC North teams could all easily clinch this week (with no one any closer to clinching the division)
If the three of them win and SD loses, all three AFC North contenders clinch the three remaining AFC playoff spots!
It all comes down to Week 17 again...
...in the NFC East...as long as Philadelphia beats Washington today. Things could get interesting if they lose (DAL can clinch tomorrow).
Arizona could clinch everything tomorrow
With a win, the Cardinals would clinch homefield advantage all the way through the Super Bowl.
Dallas's win at Seattle won't help them get a first round bye
If Seattle and Dallas both win out, one might expect the Cowboys to clinch homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with their win at Seattle being the tiebreaker. The problem is that most likely, either Green Bay or Detroit will also end up 12-4, and the three-way tiebreak would toss the Cowboys down to the third seed, having to play in the first round, likely hosting the loser of Green Bay and Detroit!
Three-way tiebreak (teams from different divisions):
1. Apply divisional tiebreaker if any subset of the teams are in the same division Doesn't apply
2. Head-to-head sweep (only applies if one team has beaten both other teams or lost to both other teams) Doesn't apply
3. Conference record DAL already has 4 conference losses, while SEA and either GB or DET will have fewer conference losses
The Packers could miss the playoffs quite easily
The Packers miss the playoffs if Detroit and Philadelphia win out, Seattle beats St. Louis, and the Cowboys lose to the Colts. They would then miss the playoffs regardless of what happened in either of Arizona's games. It may be counterintuitive that a competitor (Dallas) has to lose for Green Bay to miss the playoffs, but it is necessary as Dallas must become a wild card contender by losing the division to Philadelphia before Dallas can eliminate Green Bay on tiebreakers (If Philadelphia lost the division, Green Bay would beat Philadelphia on tiebreakers as they won at Philadelphia.)
There are three scenarios within the above scenario that result in a Green Bay elimination:
Seattle winning the division and Arizona finishing 12-4
Seattle winning the division and Arizona finishing 11-5
Arizona winning the division
Seattle winning the division and Arizona finishing 12-4
If Seattle wins the division and Arizona finishes 12-4, there would be a two-way tie between the Cowboys and Packers at 11-5 for the 6th seed.
Two-way tiebreak (teams from different divisions):
1. Head-to-head Doesn't apply
2. Conference record Both would be 8-4
3. Record against common opponents, minimum of four:
The Cowboys' and Packers' common opponents this season were the Bears, Eagles, Saints, and Seahawks, against whom the Packers were 3-2, but the Cowboys were 4-1. DAL wins tiebreak, eliminating GB
Seattle winning the division and Arizona finishing 11-5
If Seattle wins the division and Arizona finishes 11-5, there would be a three-way tie among the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Packers at 11-5 for the 5th seed.
Three-way tiebreak (teams from different divisions):
1. Apply divisional tiebreaker if any subset of the teams are in the same division Doesn't apply
2. Head-to-head sweep (only applies if one team has beaten both other teams or lost to both other teams) Doesn't apply
3. Conference record All three teams would be 8-4
4. Record against common opponents, minimum of four: ARZ, DAL, GB lack 4 common opponents
5. Strength of victory (combined records of all teams beaten): Due to such quality wins as DET, PHI, and DAL, Cardinals win the tiebreak here for the fifth seed.
Next, the remaining two teams revert back to the top of the two-way tiebreaker format to see who gets the sixth seed, and DAL beats out GB for reasons already clarified in the previous scenario.
Arizona winning the division
There would be a three-way tie among the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Packers at 11-5 for the fifth seed.
Three-way tiebreak (teams from different divisions):
1. Apply divisional tiebreaker if any subset of the teams are in the same division Doesn't apply
2. Head-to-head sweep (only applies if one team has beaten both other teams or lost to both other teams) Doesn't apply
3. Conference record Seattle would be 9-3, winning the tiebreak over the two 8-4 teams.
DAL then wins the two-way tiebreak over GB.
The three games that could still be divisional championship games in Week 17
1. DET-GB
2. CIN-PIT
3. CAR-ATL
1. DET-GB
As long as the Packers win tomorrow, regardless of what the Lions do, this is a divisional championship game (If the Packers lose, the Lions could clinch with a win tomorrow.).
2. CIN-PIT
As long as both these teams win in Week 16, this will be a divisional championship game. Here's the reason: Even if BAL is 10-5 after this week, a CIN win in Week 17 would keep them ahead of BAL, since they're already a half game ahead, and a PIT win would at worst tie them with BAL, and PIT owns the tiebreaker over BAL since they split but PIT would have a better division record (4-2 over 3-3).
A CIN-PIT tie and BAL win in Week 17 would still hand the division to CIN. 10-4-2 is an equivalent record to 11-5, and CIN swept BAL.
3. CAR-ATL
This is a divisional championship game if both these teams win tomorrow. Even though the Saints would still be tied with ATL and only a half game behind CAR, a CAR win in Week 17 would keep them ahead of the Saints (since they're already a half game ahead), and an ATL win would at worst tie them with NO (and ATL would have swept NO in this scenario).
A CAR-ATL tie would tie CAR and NO at 6-8-2 and 7-9, and they split, but CAR would have a better division record of 3-2-1 over NO's 3-3.
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