Note: Before getting started, just wanted to mention that three teams, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, have already clinched and technically have nothing to play for so they are not part of the main scenarios, but there are some reasons they may possibly choose to not rest their starters. I've discussed these in footnotes at the bottom.
Now, on to the main scenarios...
NFC
GREEN BAY (12-3)
The Packers have already clinched:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the NFC North division title
and can still clinch:
a first round bye
The Packers can clinch a first round bye with:
1) GB win/tie OR
2) SEA loss/tie
SEATTLE (11-4)
The Seahawks have already clinched:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the NFC West division title
and can still clinch:
a first round bye
The Seahawks can clinch a first round bye with:
1) SEA win + GB loss + NO loss/tie
NEW ORLEANS (11-4)
The Saints have already clinched:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the NFC South division title
and can still clinch:
a first round bye
The Saints can clinch a first round bye with:
1) NO win + GB loss + SEA win
TAMPA BAY (10-5)
The Buccaneers have already clinched a playoff spot and can clinch nothing more1.
LOS ANGELES (9-6)
The Rams have clinched nothing but can still clinch a playoff spot.
The Rams can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) LAR win/tie OR
2) CHI loss/tie
CHICAGO (8-7)
The Bears have clinched nothing but can still clinch a playoff spot.
The Bears can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) CHI win OR
2) CHI tie + ARZ tie OR
3) ARZ loss
ARIZONA (8-7)
The Cardinals have clinched nothing but can still clinch a playoff spot.
The Cardinals can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) ARZ win OR
2) ARZ tie + CHI loss
WASHINGTON (6-9)
The Football Team has clinched nothing but can still clinch:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the NFC East division title
The Football Team can clinch a playoff spot and the NFC East division title with:
1) WFT win OR
2) WFT tie + DAL loss/tie
DALLAS (6-9)
The Cowboys have clinched nothing but can still clinch:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the NFC East division title
The Cowboys can clinch a playoff spot and the NFC East division title with:
1) DAL win + WFT loss/tie OR
2) DAL tie + WFT loss
NEW YORK (5-10)
The Giants have clinched nothing but can still clinch:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the NFC East division title
The Giants can clinch a playoff spot and the NFC East division title with:
1) NYG win + WFT loss
AFC
KANSAS CITY (14-1)
The Chiefs have clinched everything:
a) a playoff spot,
b) the AFC West division title, and
c) a first round bye
PITTSBURGH (12-3)
The Steelers have already clinched:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the AFC North division title
and can clinch nothing more2.
BUFFALO (11-3)
The Bills have already clinched:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the AFC East division title
and can clinch nothing more2.
TENNESSEE (10-5)
The Titans have clinched nothing but can still clinch:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the AFC South division title
The Titans can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) TEN tie + MIA tie OR
2) MIA loss OR
3) TEN tie + BAL tie OR
4) BAL loss OR
5) TEN tie + CLE loss
The Titans can clinch a playoff spot and the AFC South division title with:
1) TEN win OR
2) TEN tie + IND tie OR
3) IND loss
MIAMI (10-5)
The Dolphins have clinched nothing but can still clinch a playoff spot.
The Dolphins can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) MIA win OR
2) MIA tie + BAL tie OR
3) BAL loss OR
4) MIA tie + CLE tie OR
5) CLE loss OR
6) MIA tie + IND tie OR
7) IND loss OR
8) MIA tie + TEN loss
BALTIMORE (10-5)
The Ravens have clinched nothing but can still clinch a playoff spot.
The Ravens can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) BAL win OR
2) BAL tie + CLE tie OR
3) CLE loss OR
4) BAL tie + IND tie OR
5) IND loss OR
6) BAL tie + TEN loss OR
7) BAL tie + MIA loss
CLEVELAND (10-5)
The Browns have clinched nothing but can still clinch a playoff spot.
The Browns can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) CLE win OR
2) CLE tie + IND tie OR
3) IND loss OR
4) CLE tie + TEN loss OR
5) CLE tie + MIA loss OR
6) CLE tie + BAL loss OR
7) CLE tie + BAL win + MIA win + TEN tie OR
8) BAL win/tie + MIA win/tie + TEN loss
INDIANAPOLIS (10-5)
The Colts have clinched nothing but can still clinch:
a) a playoff spot and
b) the AFC South division title
The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) IND win + MIA loss/tie OR
2) IND tie + MIA loss OR
3) IND win + BAL loss/tie OR
4) IND tie + BAL loss OR
5) IND win + CLE loss/tie OR
6) IND tie + CLE loss
The Colts can clinch a playoff spot and the AFC South division title with:
1) IND win + TEN loss/tie OR
2) IND tie + TEN loss
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Footnotes:
1. Tampa Bay and Los Angeles are still competing for the 5 seed, the holder of which will get to play at the NFC East champion, the team with the worst record in the whole playoffs. Hence, Tampa may play their starters to try to win the 5 seed. If the teams finish tied, the Rams would get the spot because they beat the Bucs.
2. Pittsburgh and Buffalo are still competing for the 2 seed. The only thing this will really decide is where the game happens if the two teams happen to meet in the playoffs. Given the two cities' similar weather, geographic proximity (no long flight/jet lag required), and no fans in either stadium, there is barely a homefield advantage between the two if they play each other. Today, Governor Cuomo has said there *may* be around 6k fans in Buffalo for the playoffs, but I do not believe that will be enough to get the Steelers to play their starters next week, especially when the Steelers have other reasons they'll likely rest: their bye week was taken away by the league earlier this season due to the Titans COVID issues and earlier this month they played 3 games in 11 days due to the Ravens COVID issues. The Bills, if they were maybe thinking of resting next week, maybe now won't after hearing about the possibility of fans in the playoffs. They definitely can't rest tonight because if they lose twice, they can actually fall to the 4 seed because they lost to the Titans, and they definitely won't want to have to travel to Nashville, a stadium with more than enough fans to make a difference. It's also important to note that in most years, the other difference between the 2 and 3 seeds would be their first round opponent, since the 2 seed gets the 7 seed and the 3 seed gets the 6 seed. However, with any of 5 different teams who could end up in those wild card spots and no clarity on that whatsoever when the Steelers and Bills kick off on Sunday, that will not factor into the decision whatsoever. If the teams finish tied, the Bills would get the spot because they beat the Steelers.
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