Thursday, December 17, 2015

Games that could be the Week 17 Sunday night game

Week 17 scheduling rules: a team that has a chance to clinch something before Week 17 starts:
a) cannot clinch it before playing
b) cannot be eliminated from it before playing

We can extrapolate that the Sunday night game, the last game of the entire regular season, must be chosen as a game whose playoff implications cannot change based on the results of other games.

The last 5 seasons in a row, this has been a divisional championship game. This is likely again this year, as any of these games might be for their respective division titles:
JAX-HOU
MIN-GB
PHI-NYG
WAS-DAL
SEA-ARZ

There is one scenario under which MIN-GB is the NFC North Championship Game, but it cannot be the Sunday night game. This would occur if Minnesota is also competing with the New York Giants for a wild card spot, and they have not yet even clinched a playoff berth!

How this can happen: In Weeks 15 and 16, Redskins and Giants win out, Packers win 1 of 2, and Vikings beat Bears. Then, the scenario in Week 17 would be that if the Redskins and Giants both win, and the Vikings lose, the Vikings would miss the playoffs entirely! So, despite this being an NFC North Championship Game, it would need to happen at the same time as the NFC East games, instead of at night, so that the Vikings can't clinch a playoff berth before the kickoff of their game.

There is a scenario under which WAS-DAL could be the Sunday night game even if it's not an NFC East Championship Game. This requires a specific combination of five games over the next two weeks:
Redskins lose to Bills
Eagles beat Cardinals
Redskins win at Eagles
Giants win 1 of 2 in Weeks 15 and 16

If this happens, the Week 17 clinching scenarios for the NFC East will be:
WAS clinches div with: win
PHI or NYG clinches div with: win + WAS loss

This is a unique case where it would be okay for WAS-DAL to happen after PHI-NYG despite teams in both games competing for the same playoff spot. Despite the Redskins' playing after the PHI-NYG result is already known, it doesn't affect their scenarios. They still need to win to get in. It's impossible for them to clinch before playing because the PHI-NYG winner (or both if they tie) is guaranteed to be ahead of WAS after the PHI-NYG game. It's impossible for them to be eliminated before playing since they control their own destiny.

That said, I doubt WAS-DAL would be chosen in this case unless there are no other playoff implication games that are independent of other game results.

While it cannot be a divisional championship game, since obviously the Pats have already clinched it, NYJ-BUF could be the Sunday night game if it is a play-in game for the 6 seed. If the Bills win the next two, Steelers lose the next two, and Jets lose 1 of 2, the Jets and Bills will be the only 2 teams competing for that 6 seed, and so it would be an effective playoff game: winner gets the 6 seed, loser is eliminated. It could then be the Sunday night game.

One last note: if somehow NONE of the above games fit the criteria of a Week 17 Sunday night game, with no game having playoff implications that aren't affected by other games, if the Panthers are 15-0 I expect their game to be at night so that the NFL can showcase their attempt at only the second-ever 16-0 regular season.

No comments:

Post a Comment