Thursday, October 29, 2015

Ranking Week 7, Week 8 NFL games


Week 7 by level of excitement
14. Texans at Dolphins
13. Seahawks at 49ers
12. Browns at Rams
11. Vikings at Lions
10. Steelers at Chiefs
9. Raiders at Chargers
8. Eagles at Panthers
7. Falcons at Titans
6. Saints at Colts
5. Bills/Jaguars
4. Buccaneers at Redskins
3. Cowboys at Giants
2. Jets at Patriots
1. Ravens at Cardinals

Week 8 by level of interest
14. Titans at Texans (1:00)
13. Chargers at Ravens (1:00)
12. Lions/Chiefs (9:30am)
11. 49ers at Rams (1:00)
10. Buccaneers at Falcons (1:00)
9. Cardinals at Browns (1:00)
8. Seahawks at Cowboys (4:25)
7. Vikings at Bears (1:00)
6. Giants at Saints (1:00)
5. Jets at Raiders (4:05)
4. Colts at Panthers (Monday)
3. Dolphins at Patriots (Thursday)
2. Bengals at Steelers (1:00)
Game of the Year: Packers at Broncos (8:30)









Wednesday, October 28, 2015

NEWMAC field hockey playoff scenarios

Wellesley has played all eight of its conference games, but the other eight each have one game left this Saturday:

Wheaton at Mount Holyoke, noon
Babson at MIT, 1
Springfield at WPI, 1
Smith at Clark, 1

Recall, top six make the conference tournament (and these teams are already locked in), a top four seeding guarantees that if you must play in the first round, it's at home, a top two seeding grants a first round bye, and the top seed hosts the semifinals and final of the conference tournament.

Wheaton, WPI, and Clark have been eliminated, and the other six teams have clinched a spot in the tournament. Beyond that,

WELLESLEY
has clinched: a first round bye
can clinch: hosting the tournament
Wellesley can clinch hosting the tournament with: Babson loss

BABSON
has clinched: a top four seeding
can clinch:
a) a first round bye
b) hosting the tournament
Babson can clinch a first round bye and hosting the tournament with: a win

MIT
has clinched: a top four seeding
can clinch: a first round bye
MIT can clinch a first round bye with: a win

SMITH
has clinched: a spot in the tournament
can clinch: a top four seeding
Smith can clinch a top four seeding with:
1) a win
2) Mount Holyoke loss + MIT win*
3) Mount Holyoke loss + Springfield loss*

MOUNT HOLYOKE
has clinched: a spot in the tournament
can clinch: a top four seeding
Mount Holyoke can clinch a top four seeding with:
1) Mount Holyoke win + Smith loss
2) Smith loss + Springfield win + Babson win*

SPRINGFIELD
has clinched: a spot in the tournament
can clinch: nothing more






*The only way Mount Holyoke can beat Smith in a tiebreaker is if they end up in a three-way tiebreaker with Springfield. This is why if Mount Holyoke loses, not only do they need Smith to lose (to tie with them), but they also need Springfield to win to enter this three-way tiebreak. Now, since the three teams are 1-1 against each other, it goes to the next step, which is to compare the three teams to the first seed. If the first seed is Babson, Mount Holyoke wins since they beat Babson. This is why Mount Holyoke also needs Babson to win, to become the first seed. Even if they are in the three-way tiebreak, they'd lose to Smith if Wellesley is the first seed. Since none of the three beat Wellesley, the tiebreak would consider second-seed MIT, which only Smith beat out of Smith, Mount Holyoke, and Springfield.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Analysis of ESPN college football commentator positioning, Week 8

First, let me discuss how I know (or think I know) that these six commentator groups are the ones that ESPN considers its top six in the top tier, in this order:
1. Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, and Heather Cox (they did the National Championship Game)
2. Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, and Holly Rowe (they did the other national semifinal that Chris/Kirk/Heather didn't do)
3. Sean McDonough, Chris Spielman, and Todd McShay (they do Saturday Night Football whenever it's not Chris/Kirk/Heather)
4. Dave Pasch, Brian Griese, and Tom Luginbill (they did College GameDay's Game of the Week Cal at Utah)
5 and 6 I'm less certain on, but it's just based on the quality of matchups that I've noticed these commentator groups doing, and how m any appearances their sideline reporters frequently make on College GameDay for coach interviews

5. Bob Wischusen, Brock Huard, and Shannon Spake
6. Adam Amin, Kelly Stouffer, and Olivia Harlan

This week's assignments:
1. Ohio State at Rutgers. Surprising such a garbage game. However, a weak slate this week with nowhere else to put them. Perhaps Clemson at Miami, but it's a noon kick which doesn't give Herbie and the Bear time to travel.
2. Texas A&M at Ole Miss. Always the SEC primetime game. No surprise.
3. Clemson at Miami. No surprise. Definitely the second-best ESPN game this week.
4. Washington at Stanford. I am surprised. I think this will be a blowout whereas Florida State actually has a pretty good chance to lose at Georgia Tech. I thought they would go there.
5. Iowa State at Baylor. I'm surprised at this as well, but it does make sense that they would want to take advantage of having Baylor after its being on Fox for a while.
6. Texas Tech at Oklahoma. It makes sense to send them here since so far no top team has been sent to one of the ABC/ESPN2 3:30 reverse mirror games. This is the Baker Mayfield Bowl. His dad called Kliff Kingsbury a scoundrel.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

How Memphis can make the College Football Playoff

Memphis would require several things to go its way beyond just going undefeated, but it's definitely not out of the question for it to make the Playoff.

Most importantly, there need to be a maximum of three other undefeated teams. Let's not kid ourselves. An undefeated Memphis isn't going to beat out an undefeated team that won a Power Five conference. Memphis needs to be competing against one-loss teams for that fourth spot to have any chance. Right now, it looks like the most likely shot at this happening is if Utah and LSU are to lose, since their conferences have no other undefeated teams. However, it could really be any two of the Power Five that finish with no undefeateds.

Next, there are two rather very specific scenarios outside of Memphis's own games that I think need to happen:
Miami needs to beat Clemson
Temple needs to beat Notre Dame

The reason these need to happen is that then Memphis could claim the following:
They beat a team who beat team who beat Clemson (Memphis, Cincinnati, Miami, Clemson)
They beat a team who beat Alabama (Memphis, Ole Miss, Alabama)
They beat a team who beat Notre Dame (Memphis, Temple, Notre Dame)

They would also have three wins in October and November over ranked teams (vs. Ole Miss, at Temple, at Houston).

If all of these happen, and only three of the Power Five champions are undefeated, I don't see a way an undefeated Memphis gets left out of the College Football Playoff.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Ranking Week 6, Week 7 NFL games


Week 6 by level of excitement
14. Dolphins at Titans
13. Falcons at Saints
12. Giants at Eagles
11. Texans at Jaguars
10. Chiefs at Vikings
9. Bengals at Bills
8. Redskins at Jets
7. Patriots at Colts
6. Cardinals at Steelers
5. Ravens at 49ers
4. Panthers at Seahawks
3. Chargers at Packers
2. Broncos at Browns
1. Bears at Lions

Week 7 by level of interest
14. Vikings at Lions (1:00)
13. Saints at Colts (1:00)
12. Texans at Dolphins (1:00)
11. Buccaneers at Redskins (1:00)
10. Bills/Jaguars (9:30am)
9. Ravens at Cardinals (Monday)
8. Falcons at Titans (1:00)
7. Steelers at Chiefs (1:00)
6. Raiders at Chargers (4:05)
5. Browns at Rams (1:00)
4. Cowboys at Giants (4:25)
3. Seahawks at 49ers (Thursday)
2. Eagles at Panthers (8:30)
Game of the Week: Jets at Patriots (1:00)











Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Simultaneous games on the final day

This year for the first time, Major League Baseball scheduled all 15 games on the last day of the regular season at 3 ET (In reality, it was either 3:05 or 3:10 first pitch based on the preference of the home team.). This was largely due to the last day of the 2014 season, when the Pirates lost a 1 ET start, clinching the division for the Cardinals, who were scheduled at 4 ET at Arizona. This allowed the Cardinals to scratch Wainwright and save him for Game 1 of the Division Series against the Dodgers, clearly a competitive advantage.

In the English Premier League, all 10 matches on the final day of the season (there are no playoffs) all begin at 3pm for the same reason. In soccer it's even more important since this is Championship Sunday, not just to make the playoffs.

The NFL doesn't play all 16 games at the same time on Week 17, but it is the only week when all 16 happen on the same day. In addition, game times can move up until 6 days before kickoff, such that games that impact each other do happen simultaneously. 2014 had the most chaos involving Week 17 scheduling. There were three divisional championship games, for the AFC North, NFC North, and NFC South. I wasn't sure whether the NFC South or NFC North's game would be chosen for Sunday Night Football. The NFC South's because it was a true elimination game, or the NFC North's because it was the most competitive of the three. I thought the NFL may not want to choose this game because the loser would not be eliminated: it would be a wild card. I was right, but who knows for what reason. I hadn't at all considered the AFC North Championship Game for the Sunday Night Football because with Cincinnati in it, it didn't contain the appeal of DET-GB, but it also wasn't an elimination game since PIT had scored a playoff spot. Somehow, that was the game selected. My thought is that with the 6-day rule, the Week 17 Sunday Night Football game had to be selected before Week 16 Monday Night Football, and had the Bengals lost that one to the Broncos, then Week 17 would have been an elimination game for them, if not for Pittsburgh. So, I believe the NFL decided to pick a competitive matchup where at least one team ha a chance of being eliminated. We may never know whether this matchup would have been chosen had the Bengals not been in danger of elimination. To date, this has been the only year with multiple divisional championship games, and so the sample size is far too small to know how the NFL selects Sunday Night Football Week 17 in the case of multiple divisional championship games.

Originally, CAR-ATL was scheduled for 1:00, and I think it would have stayed this way had the Bengals lost to the Broncos, because then the #1 seed would have been still up for grabs heading into Week 17, and NE-BUF would have moved for 4:25 to be simultaneous with DEN-OAK. When this didn't happen, the NFL wanted to give CBS a 4:25 game with playoff implications, and so CAR-ATL was crossflexed and timeflexed from Fox 1:00 to CBS 4:25. My friend said he disagreed with the decision; he wanted three divisional championship games in the three different timeslots of the day, and he said SD-KC should have been flexed. The problem is, as a result of such a move, KC may be eliminated before kickoff if either BAL or HOU wins at 1:00, changing how they play against SD, which would irritate BAL and HOU who actually need SD to lose, and are counting on KC playing them hard, still being in the playoff hunt. Thus, had CAR-ATL not had playoff significance, all three of SD-KC, BAL-CLE, and JAX-HOU would have been moved.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Ranking Week 5, Week 6 NFL games

Week 5 by level of excitement
14. Cardinals at Lions
13. Saints at Eagles
12. Patriots at Cowboys
11. Rams at Packers
10. Jaguars at Buccaneers
9. Bills at Titans
8. Colts at Texans
7. Broncos at Raiders
6. 49ers at Giants
5. Redskins at Falcons
4. Bears at Chiefs
3. Browns at Ravens
2. Seahawks at Bengals
1. Steelers at Chargers

Week 6 by level of interest
14. Texans at Jaguars (1:00)
13. Dolphins at Titans (1:00)
12. Ravens at 49ers (4:25)
11. Chiefs at Vikings (1:00)
10. Falcons at Saints (Thursday)
9. Chargers at Packers (4:25)
8. Bears at Lions (1:00)
7. Broncos at Browns (1:00)
6. Redskins at Jets (1:00)
5. Patriots at Colts (8:30)
4. Giants at Eagles (Monday)
3. Cardinals at Steelers (1:00)
2. Panthers at Seahawks (4:05)
1. Bengals at Bills (1:00)











Saturday, October 10, 2015

Remaining SEC undefeateds' games today

#7 LSU (vs. South Carolina, 2:30 CT, ESPN, ESPN3)
#11 Florida (at Missouri, 6:30 CT, SEC Network, ESPN3)

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Ranking Week 4, Week 5 NFL games

Week 4 by level of excitement
15. Texans at Falcons
14. Panthers at Buccaneers
13. Chiefs at Bengals
12. Packers at 49ers
11. Jets/Dolphins
10. Giants at Bills
9. Rams at Cardinals
8. Vikings at Broncos
7. Lions at Seahawks
6. Eagles at Redskins
5. Raiders at Bears
4. Browns at Chargers
3. Cowboys at Saints
2. Jaguars at Colts
1. Ravens at Steelers

Week 5 by level of interest
14. Jaguars at Buccaneers (1:00)
13. Colts at Texans (Thursday)
12. 49ers at Giants (8:30)
11. Bills at Titans (1:00)
10. Redskins at Falcons (1:00)
9. Steelers at Chargers (Monday)
8. Broncos at Raiders (4:25)
7. Cardinals at Lions (4:05)
6. Patriots at Cowboys (4:25)
5. Browns at Ravens (1:00)
4. Bears at Chiefs (1:00)
3. Rams at Packers (1:00)
2. Saints at Eagles (1:00)
Game of the Week: Seahawks at Bengals (1:00)

Saturday, October 3, 2015

POSTSEASON SCENARIOS!!!!!

POSTSEASON SCENARIOS:

AL:
HOU win + NYY win + LAA beats TEX: LAA eliminated. HOU@TEX Monday for division. LOSER at NYY Tuesday in Wild Card Game.

HOU win + NYY loss + LAA beats TEX: LAA eliminated. HOU@TEX Monday for division. Loser HOSTS Yankees Tuesday in Wild Card Game.

HOU win + NYY win + TEX beats LAA: LAA eliminated. TEX wins division. HOU@NYY Tuesday in Wild Card Game.

HOU win + NYY loss + TEX beats LAA: LAA eliminated. TEX wins division. NYY@HOU Tuesday in Wild Card Game.

HOU loss + LAA beats TEX: TEX wins division. LAA@HOU Monday for second wild card. Winner at NYY Tuesday in Wild Card Game.

HOU loss + TEX beats LAA: TEX wins division. HOU gets second wild card, travels to NYY Tuesday. LAA eliminated.

For homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, the Blue Jays get it if they win and the Royals lose. Otherwise, the Royals get it.

NL:
For homefield in the Wild Card Game, the Cubs get it if they win and the Pirates lose. Otherwise, the Pirates get it.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

What if there's a four-way tie in baseball after Sunday?

All times Eastern.

While it's no longer possible for the Angels and Rangers to tie for the AL West crown because the Angels are an odd number back heading into an four-game set in Arlington, it's possible for one of those teams to end up in a four-way tie with the Yankees, Astros, and Twins!

Now, the only record at which this could happen is 86-76 since the Yankees are currently 86-72 and the Twins are 82-76. Note that as a result, it's impossible for the four-way tie to include any part of the AL West crown: if the Angels end up 86-76, the Rangers would be 87-75, and win the division. If the Rangers end up 86-76, the Angels would have swept, and be 87-75, with the division title.

In either case, whether it's HOU, NYY, TEX, and MIN, or HOU, NYY, LAA, and MIN,  the four teams would be tied for two spots: both wild card spots. Thus, there's no March Madness (October Oddness?) tiebreaker involving a bracket; there would simply be two games Monday, and the winners of those two would play in the Wild Card Game Tuesday as scheduled.

Who would play each other is determined by teams' choosing four designations, and then the two Monday games would be B@A and D@C. The teams choose their 'ABCD' designations in order based on their winning percentages against each other.

If HOU, NYY, TEX, MIN all 86-76,
HOU record against NYY, TEX, MIN: 13-19 (.406)
NYY record against HOU, TEX, MIN: 10-10 (.500)
TEX record against HOU, NYY, MIN: 21-11 (.656)
MIN record against HOU, NYY, TEX: 7-11 (.389)

which means the Rangers would choose designation A, B, C, or D, first, followed by the Yankees' choosing amongst the remaining three letters, followed by the Astros, and finally the Twins would be left with whichever designation is left. This would make the Rangers and Yankees the home teams, and the Astros and Twins the road teams.

If HOU, NYY, LAA, MIN all 86-76,
HOU record against NYY, LAA, MIN: 17-15 (.531)
NYY record against HOU, LAA, MIN: 12-7 (.632)
LAA record against HOU, NYY, MIN: 16-16 (.500)
MIN record against HOU, NYY, LAA: 8-13 (.381)

which means the Yankees would choose first, followed by the Astros, Angels, and Twins. Home teams: Yankees and Astros, road teams: Angels and Twins

Which team would host the Wild Card Game is the team that won the season series against the other wild card club. If the wild card teams are the Rangers and Twins or Astros and Twins, both of whom split their season series 3-3, then the home team would be the one that won more games in the last 81 games of the season.

What you've read so far is the most important part. Now you've understood how the tiebreaker will work. The rest of this is mostly my own speculation, and is certainly less apropos.

Since one game site is in the Central Time Zone (either Houston or Arlington), I can see the games being scheduled for 5:38 and 9:08, but most likely the games will be at 5:08 and 8:38 since the winners will have to play the next day at 8:08.

All tiebreaker games will be telecast exclusively by ESPN, and therefore Monday Night Football (DET@SEA) would be moved to ESPN2.

Sources: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/151417362/mlb-announces-start-times-for-wild-card-games