Here’s my overall CFP analysis:
Georgia is in.
Alabama, Michigan, and Oklahoma State all control their own destinies.
If one of them loses, Cincinnati gets in as #4. If two of them lose, Cincinnati gets in as #3 and Notre Dame as #4. If all three of them lose, Cincinnati gets in as #2, Notre Dame as #3, and Baylor as #4.
If Cincinnati loses, I think they could still get in since they’d be 12-1, especially in a sea of 2-loss teams, but if the committee is determined to eliminate Cincinnati with a loss, then I think the next team to get in after Baylor would be Oregon. If Oregon also loses, then either Ole Miss, Ohio State, or Michigan would get in as the 4 seed.
So if Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, and Oregon all lose, we could end up with
#1 Georgia
#2 Notre Dame
#3 Baylor
#4 Ole Miss/Michigan/Ohio State
